Publications

2025

• Robinson, C. , Aman, N. Banh, T., Brooke, J., Chanchlani, R., Cuthbertson, B., Dhillon, V., Fan, E., Langlois, V., Levin, L., Licht, C., McKay, A., Noone, D., Pearl, R., Radhakrishnan, S., Rowley, V., Wei Teoh, C., Vasilevska-Ristovska, J., Heath, A., Parekh, R. Comparative efficacy of non-steroid immunosuppressive medications in childhood nephrotic syndrome. JAMA Pediatrics. 2025.
• Phillippo, D., Remiro-Azocar, A., Heath, A., Baio, G., Dias, S., Ades, A., Welton, N. Effect modification and non-collapsibility together may lead to conflicting treatment decisions: A review of marginal and conditional estimands and recommendations for decision-making. Research Synthesis Methods. 2025.
• Wahid, L., Froess, J., Ortel, T., Zarychanski, T., Berger, J., Cushman, M., Angus, D., Renard, V., Farahani, P., Webb, S., Heath, A., et al. Longitudinal On-Treatment Markers of Thromboinammation Identify Heterogeneity of Treatment Effect of Therapeutic-Dose Heparin in a Clinical Trial of Patients Hospitalized for COVID-19. Arteriosclerosis, Thrombosis, and Vascular Biology. 2025; 41(1).

2024

• Tran, N-A., McGrory, A., Poonai, N., Heath, A. A comparison of alternative ranking methods in two-stage clinical trials with multiple interventions: an application to the anxiolysis for laceration repair in children trial. Clin Trials. 2024.
• Chen, Z., Harhay, M., Fan, E., Granholm, A., McAuley, D., Urner, M., Yarnell, C., Goligher, E., Heath, A. Statistical power and performance of strategies to analyze composites of survival and duration of ventilation in clinical trials. Critical Care Explorations. 2024; 20;6(10): e1152.
• Siu, A., Tran, N.-A., Ali, S., Coyle, D., Mahmood, Q., Pechlivanoglou, P., Poonai, N., Heath, A. Anxiolytic Agents for Managing Distress During Laceration Repair in Children: A Systematic Review. Pediatric Emergency Care. 2024; 40(2): 88-97.
• Li, L., Jalal, H., Heath, A. Accurate EVSI Estimation for Nonlinear Models Using the Gaussian Approximation Method. Medical Decision Making. 2024; 44(7):787- 801.
• Wang, J.-Y., Speechley, K., Anderson, K., Gainham, G., Ali, S., Doyon-Trottier, E., Sabhaney, V., Heath, A., Forbes, A., Poonai, N. Intranasal Midazolam for Procedural Distress in Children: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis. Canadian Journal of Emergency Medicine. 2024; 26(1): 658-670.
• Siu, A., Tran, N.-A., Ali, S., Coyle, D., Mahmood, Q., Pechlivanoglou, P., Poonai, N., Heath, A. Pharmacologic Procedural Distress Management During Laceration Repair in Children: A Systematic Review. Pediatric Emergency Care. 2024; 40(2):88-97.
• Bosma, K., Lafreniere-Roula, M., Jiang, A., Heath, A., Ouyang, Y., et al. Proportional Assist Ventilation for Minimizing the Duration of Mechanical Ventilation (the PROMIZING study): update to the statistical analysis plan for a randomized controlled trial. Trials, 2024; 25: 885.
• * Robinson, C. *, Parekh, R., Cuthbertson, B., Fan, E., Ouyang, Y., Heath, A. Using Simulation to Optimize the Design of Adaptive Clinical Trials. Journal of the American Society of Nephrology. 2024.
• Ben Eltriki, M., Chhabra, M., Rafiq, A., Paul, A., Prabhu, D., Afolabi, M., Bashaw, R., Neilson, C., Mahmud, S., Lacaze-Masmonteil, T., Marlin, S., Klassen, T., Offringa, M., Butcher, N., Heath, A., Driedger, M., Kelly, L. Adaptive designs in clinical trials: a systematic review-part I. BMC Medical Research Methodology, 2024; 24:229.
• Goligher, E., Heath, A., Harhay, M. Bayesian statistics for clinical research. Lancet, 2024; 404(10457):1067-1076.
• Baba, A., Aregbesola, A., Caldwell, P., Elliott, S., Elsman, E., Fernandes, R., Hartling, L., Heath, A., Kelly, L., Preston, J., Sammy, A., Webbe, J., Williams, K., Woolfall, K., Klassen, T., Offringa, M. on behalf of StaR Child Health. Developments in the Design, Conduct, and Reporting of Child Health Trials. Pediatrics. 2024;154(1): e2024065799.
• Ganji, N., Kalish, B., Offringa, M., Li, B., Anderson, J., Baruchel, S., Blakely, M., De Coppi, P., Eaton, S., Gauda, E., Hall, N., Heath, A., Livingston, M., McNair, C., Mitchell, R., Patel, K., Pechlivanoglou, P., et al. Translating Regenerative Medicine Therapies in Neonatal Necrotizing Enterocolitis. Pediatric Research. 2024; 96(1): 1609-1615.
• Hosseini, R., Chen, Z., Goligher, E., Fan, E., Ferguson, N., Harhay, M., Sahetya, S., Urner, M., Yarnell, C., Heath, A. Designing a Bayesian adaptive clinical trial to evaluate ventilation procedures in critical care using Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations. Contemporary Clinical Trials. 2024; 142:107560.
• Marks, Y., Hoch, J., Heath, A., Pechlivanoglou, P. Barriers and facilitators of using R for decision analytic modelling in health technology assessment: Focus group results. Pharmacoeconomics. 2024; 42(1): 783-795.
• Heath, A., Manolopoulou, I., Baio, G., and Welton, N. Value of Information for clinical trial design: the importance of considering all relevant comparators. Pharmacoeconomics. 2024; 42, 479-486.
• Chen, Z., Berger, J., Castellucci, L., Farkouh, M., Goligher, E., Hade, E., Hunt, B., Kornblith, L., Lawler, P., Leifer, E., Lorenzi, E., Neal, M., Zarychanski, R., Heath, A. A Comparison of Computational Algorithms for the Bayesian Analysis of Clinical Trials. Clinical Trials. 2024; 21(6): 689-700.
• Bos, L., Calfee, C., Castellvi-Font, A., Cornelius, V., Derde, L., Docherty, A., Fan, E., Gerguson, N., Goligher, E., Gordon, A., Granholm, A., Harhay, M., Heath, A., et al. The Rise of Adaptive Platform Trials in Critical Care. Critical Care. 2024; 209(5):491-496.
• Remiro Azocar, A. , Heath, A., Baio, G. Model-based standardization using multiple imputation. BMC Medical Research Methodology. 2024; 24, 32. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12874-024-02157-x
• Yarnell, C., Barrett, K., Heath, A., Herridge, M., Fowler, R., Sung, L., Naimark, S., Tomlinson, G. What is the potential value of a randomized trial of different thresholds to initiate invasive ventilation? A health economic analysis. Critical Care Explorations. 2024; 4;6(6): e1098.
• Kunst, N., Siu, A., Drummond, M., Grimm, S., Grutters, J., Husereau, D., Koffijberg, E., Rothery, C., Wilson, E., Heath, A. Comment on: Adding Value to CHEERS: New Reporting Standards for Value of Information Analyses. Applied Health Economics and Health Policy.  2024; 22: 265-267.

2023

• Poonai, N., Sabhaney, V., Ali, S., Stevens, H., Bhatt, M., Doyon-Trottier, E., Brahmbhatt, S., Coriolano, K., Chapman, A., Evans, N., Mace, C., Creene, C., Meulendyks, S., Heath, A. “Optimal dose of intranasal dexmedetomidine for laceration repair in children: a phase II dose-ranging study using the Bayesian continual reassessment method.” Accepted to Annals of Emergency Medicine.
• Walborn, A., Heath, A., Neal, M., Zarychanski, R., Kornblith, L., Hunt, B., Castellucci, L., Hochman, J., Paul, J. Effects of Inflammation on Thrombosis and Outcomes in COVID-19: Secondary Analysis of the ATTACC/ACTIV-4a Trial. Research and Practice in Thrombosis and Haemostasis (RPTH). 2023; 7(7): 102203.
• Smilowitz, N., Hade, E., Kornblith, L., Castellucci, L., Cushman, M., Farkouh, M., Gong, M., Heath, A., et al. Effect of Therapeutic-Dose Heparin on Acute Kidney Injury in Non-Critically Ill Patients Hospitalized for COVID-19. Research and Practice in Thrombosis and Haemostasis. 2023; 7(6):102167.
• Kunst, N., Siu, A., Drummond, M., Grimm, S., Grutters, J., Husereau, D., Koffijberg, E., Rothery, C., Wilson, E., Heath, A. Value of Information: CHEERS Extension Reporting Standards Explanation and Elaboration. Value in Health. 2023; 26(10):1461-1473.
• Remiro Azocar, A., Heath, A., Baio, G. Methodological considerations for novel approaches to covariate-adjusted indirect treatment comparisons. Research Synthesis Methods. 2023; 14(4): 652-658.
• Goligher, E., Heath, A. Bringing clinical trials to the bedside: conditional average treatment effect in the BASICS trial. Annals of the American Thoracic Society. 2023; 20(6): 794-796.
• * Vervaart, M.*, Aas, E., Claxton, K., Strong, M., Welton, N., Wisloff, T., Heath, A. General-Purpose Methods for Simulating Survival Data for Expected Value of Sample Information Calculations. Medical Decision Making. 2023; 43(5): 595-609.
• Pitre, T., Cheung, S., Cusano, E., Khan, N., Mikhail, D., Leung, G., Vernooij, R., Yarnell, C., Goligher, E., Murthy, S., Heath, A., Mah, J., Rochwerg, B., Zeraatkar, D. Methodology and Design of Platform Trials: A meta-epidemiological study. Journal of Clinical Epidemiology. 2023; 157: 1-12.
• Poonai, N., Sabhaney, V., Ali, S., Stevens, H., Bhatt, M., Doyon-Trottier, E., Brahmbhatt, S., Coriolano, K., Chapman, A., Evans, N., Mace, C., Creene, C., Meulendyks, S., Heath, A. Optimal dose of intranasal dexmedetomidine for laceration repair in children: a phase II dose-ranging study using the Bayesian continual reassessment method. Annals of Emergency Medicine. 2023; 82(2):179-190.

2022

• Green, N., Heath, A., Baio, G. “BCEA: An R Package for Cost Effectiveness Analysis.” The Journal of Open Source Software, 7(77): 4206, 2022.
• Park, J., Sharif, B., Harari, O., Dron, L., Heath, A., Meade, M., Zarychanski, R., Lee, R., Tremblay, G., Mills, E., Jemiai, Y., Mehta, C., Wathen, K. “Economic evaluation of cost and time required for a platform trial vs conventional trials.” JAMA Network Open, 5(7): e2221140, 2022.
• Remiro Azocar, A., Heath, A., Baio, G., “Parametric G-computation for Compatible Indirect Treatment Comparisons with Limited Individual Patient Data.” Research Synthesis Methods.13(6):716-774, 2022.
• Lan, J., Plint, A., Dalzel, S., Klassen, T., Offringa, M., Heath, A. “Remote expert elicitation to determine the prior probability distribution for Bayesian sample size determination in international randomized controlled trials: Application to the Bronchiolitis in Infants Placebo Versus Epinephrine and Dexamethasone (BIPED) Study”. Trials. 23:279, 2022.
• Heath, A., and Pechlivanoglou, P. “Prioritising Research in an Era of Personalised Medicine: The Potential Value of Unexplained Heterogeneity.” Medical Decision Making. 42(5): 649-660, 2022.
• Heath, A. “Calculating Expected Value of Sample Information Adjusting for Imperfect Implementation.” Medical Decision Making. 42(5): 626-636, 2022.
• Flores Pimentel, M., Heath, A., Wan, M., Hussein, R., Leahy, K., MacDonald, H., Tavares, E., VandenHoven, C., MacNeill, K., Kannu, P., Parkins, P., Heon, E., Reginald, A., Vincent, A. “Prevalence of Choroidal Abnormalities and Lisch Nodules in Clinically Diagnosed and Molecular Confirmed Cohorts of Pediatric Neurofibromatosis Type 1.” Translational Vision Science & Technology (TVST), 11(2):10.
• Remiro Azocar, A., Heath, A., Baio, G., Effect modification in anchored indirect treatment comparisons: Comments on “Matching-adjusted indirect comparisons: Application to time-to-event data.” Statistics in Medicine, 41(8): 1541-1553, 2022.
•  Jackson, C., Baio, G., Heath, A., Strong, M., Welton, N., Wilson, E. “Value of Information Analysis in Models to inform Health Policy.” Annual Reviews in Statistics and its Applications, 9(1): 95-118, 2022.

2021

• Poonai, N., Coriolano, K., Klassen, T., Heath, A., Yaskina, M., Beer, D., Sawyer, S., Bhatt, M., Kam, A., Doah, Q., Sabhaney, V., Offringa, M., Pechlivanoglou, P., Hickes, S., and Ali, S., on behalf of the KidsCAN PERC iPCT-SPOR (Innovative Paediatric Clinical Trials – Strategy for Patient Oriented Research) Ketodex Study Team. (2021) Study protocol for intranasal dexmedetomidine plus ketamine for procedural sedation in children: an adaptive randomized controlled non-inferiority multicenter trial (Ketodex). BMJ Open. 10(12): e041319 – e041319.
• Heath, A. (2021) Calculating Expected Value of Sample Information Adjusting for Imperfect Implementation. Medical Decision Making.
• Heath, A., Rios, D., Pullenayegum, E., Pechlivanoglou, P., Offringa, M., Yaskina, M., Watts, R., Riimmer, S., Klassen, T., De Silva, K., Poonai, N. on behalf of the PERC-KIDSCAN Ketodex Study Group. (2021) The intranasal dexmedetomidine plus ketamine for procedural sedation in children study (the Ketodex trial): Statistical Analysis Plan. Trials. 22(1): 15-15.
• Ali, S., Hopkin, G., Poonai, N., Richer, L., Yaskina, M., Heath, A., Klassen T., McCabe, C., KidsCAN PERC Innovative Pediatric Clinical Trials; KidsCAN PERC Innovative Pediatric Clinical Trials Methods Core. (2021) A Novel Preference-Informed Complementary Trials (PICT) Design for Clinical Trial Research Influenced by Strong Patient Preferences. Trails.
• A Heath, M Strong, D Glynn, N Kunst, N J Welton, J D Goldhaber-Fiebert. Simulating Study Data to Support Expected Value of Sample Information Calculations: A Tutorial. Medical Decision Making.
• Heath, A., Hunink, M., Krijkamp, E., Pechlivanoglou, P. (2021) Prioritisation and design of clinical trials. European Journal of Epidemiology. 36: 1111–1121.
• Remiro Azocar, A., Heath, A., Baio, G. (2021). Methods for Population Adjustment with Limited Access to Individual Patient Data: A Simulation Study. Research Synthesis Methods.
• Daniel, A., Bwanali, M., Tenthani, J., Gladstone, M., Voskuijl, W., Potani, I., Ziwoya F., Chidzalo, K., Mbale, E., Heath, A., Bourdon, C., Njirammadzi, J., Heuvel, M., Bandsma, R. (2021) A mixed methods cluster-randomized controlled trial of a hospital-based psychosocial stimulation and counseling program for caregivers and children with severe acute malnutrition. Current Developments in Nutrition. 5(8): nzab100- nzab100.
• Aregbesola, A., Gates, A., Coyle, A., Sim, S., Vandermeer, B., Skakum, M., Contopoulos-Ioannidis, D., Heath, A., Hartling, L., Klassen, T. (2021) P-value and Bayesian analysis in randomized-controlled trials in child health research published over ten years, 2007 to 2017: a methodological review protocol. Systematic Reviews. 10: 71.
• Remiro-Azócar, A., Heath, A., Baio, G. (2021) Conflating marginal and conditional treatment effects: comments on “Assessing the performance of population adjustment methods for anchored indirect comparisons: A simulation study”. Statistics in Medicine. 40(11): 2753-2758.
• Heath, A., Yaskina, M., Pechlivanoglou, P., Rios, J., Offringa, M., Klassen, T., Poonai, N., Pullenayegum, E. (2021) A Bayesian response-adaptive dose finding and comparative effectiveness trial. Clinical Trials: Journal of the Society for Clinical Trials. 18(1): 61-70.

2020

• Freedman, S., Williamson-Urquhart, S., Heath, A., Pechlivanoglou, P., Hopkin, G., Gouin, S., Plint, A., Dixon, A., Beer, A., Joubert. G.; McCabe, C., Finkelstein, Y., Klassen, T. on behalf of the KidsCANPediatric Emergency Research Canada (PERC) Innovative Pediatric Clinical Trials DOSE-AGE Study Group. (2020). Multi-dose Oral Ondansetron for Pediatric Gastroenteritis: Study Protocol for the multiDOSE oral ondansetron for pediatric Acute GastroEnteritis (DOSE-AGE) Pragmatic Randomized Controlled Trial. Trials. 21(435): 1-13.

• Heath, A., Offringa, M., Pechlivanoglou, P., Rios, J., Klassen, T., Poonai, N., Pullenayegum,E. (2020). Determining a Bayesian Predictive Power Stopping Rule for Futility in a Non-Inferiority Trial with Binary Outcomes: The INK trial. Contemporary Clinical Trials Communications. 18(1005616): 1-6.
• Remiro-Azócar, A., Heath, A., Baio, G. (2020). Conflating marginal and conditional treatment effects: comments on Assessing the performance of population adjustment methods for anchored indirect comparisons: A simulation study. Statistics in Medicine.

• Kunst, N., Wilson, E., Alarid-Escudero, F., Baio, G., Brennan, A., Fairley, M., Glynn, D., GoldhaberFiebert, J., Jackson, C., Jalal, H., Menzies, N., Strong, M., Thom, H., and Heath, A. (2020). Computing the Expected Value of Sample Information efficiently: Expertise and Skills Required for Four Model-Based Methods. Value in Health. 23(6): 734–742.

• Heath, A., Yaskina, M., Hopkin, G., McCabe, C., Offringa, M., Pechlivanoglou, P., Rios, D., Poonai, N., Ali, S. on behalf of the PERC-KIDSCAN NO OUCH Trials Study Group. (2020). Non-Steroidal or Opioid Analgesia Use for Children with Musculoskeletal Injuries (No OUCH Trials): A Statistical Analysis Plan. Trials. 21: 759.

• Aoyama, K., Heath, A., Yang, A., Maynes, J., Petroz, G., Robertson, J., McDonnell, C.,Velummailum, R., Bond, E., Pechlivanoglou, P. (2020). Estimating the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to anesthesiologists: a microsimulation model. Canadian Journal of Anesthesia Journal Canadien d’anestheesie. 67: 1694–1696.

• Heath, A., Kunst, N., Jackson, C., Strong, M., Alarid-Escudero, F., Goldhaber- Fiebert, J., Baio, G., Menzies, N., and Jalal, H. (2020). Calculating the Expected Value of Sample Information in Practice: Considerations from 3 Case Studies. Medical Decision Making. 40(3): 314-326.

• Ali, S., Rajagopal, M., Richer, L., McCabe, C., Willan, A., Yaskina, M., Heath, A., Drendel, A., Gouin, S., Stang, A., Sawyer, S., Bhatt, M., Hickes, S., and Poonai, N., on behalf of the iPCT-PERC No OUCH Trials Team. (2020). A study protocol for two complementary trials of non-steroidal or opioid analgesia use for children with musculoskeletal injuries (the No OUCH trials). BMJ Open. 10(6): e035177.

• Heath, A., Rios, J., Williamson-Urquhart, S. Pechlivanoglou, P., Offringa, M., McCabe, C., Hopkin, G., Plint, A., Dixon, A., Beer, D., Gouin, S., Joubert, G., Klassen, T., Freedman, S., on behalf of the PERCKIDSCAN DOSE-AGE Study Group. (2020). A Pragmatic Randomized Controlled Trial of Multi-Dose Oral Ondansetron for Pediatric Gastroenteritis (DOSE-AGE Study): A Statistical Analysis Plan. Trials. 735(21): 1-8.

2019

• Heath, A., Manolopoulou, I., Baio, G. (2019). Estimating the expected value of sample information across different sample sizes using moment matching and non-linear regression. Medical Decision Making. 39(4): 346-358.

2018

• Heath, A., Manolopoulou, I., Baio, G. (2018). Efficient Monte Carlo estimation of the expected value of sample information using moment matching. Medical Decision Making. 38(2): 163-173.

• Heath, A., Baio, G. (2018). Calculating the expected value of sample information using efficient nested Monte Carlo: a tutorial. Value in Health. 21(11): 1299-1304.

2017

• Baio, G., Heath, A. (2017). When simple becomes complicated: why Excel should lose its place at the top table. Global and Regional Health Technology Assessment. 4(1): 3-6.

• Heath, A., Manolopoulou, I., Baio, G. (2017). A review of methods for analysis of the expected value of information. Medical Decision Making. 37(7): 747-758.

2016

• Heath, A., Manolopoulou, I., Baio, G. (2016). Estimating the expected value of partial perfect information in health economic evaluations using integrated nested Laplace approximation. Statistics in Medicine. 35: 4264–4280.